Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On May 12, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a season record of 26-12, are having a great season and will be looking to continue their success on home turf. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are having a below-average season with a record of 18-22.

Taking the mound for the Orioles is right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kremer is ranked as the #157 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. While his ERA of 3.57 this season is good, peripheral indicators such as his expected ERA (xERA) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggest that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

Opposing Kremer will be the Diamondbacks' right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen. Gallen is ranked as one of the top pitchers in the league, coming in at #22 in our Power Rankings. With an impressive ERA of 2.84 this season, Gallen has been a strong asset for the Diamondbacks.

When it comes to offense, the Orioles rank as the 6th best team in MLB this season. Their lineup has been productive, with an average batting average and a solid number of home runs. The Diamondbacks' offense also holds its own, ranking as the 11th best team in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are favored to win with a moneyline of -125, giving them an implied win probability of 53%. The Diamondbacks, with a moneyline of +105, have an implied win probability of 47%.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and the outcome of the game could hinge on factors such as the starting pitchers' performances and the offensive production. With the Orioles having a higher projected win probability, they will aim to capitalize on their great season and home advantage to secure another victory. However, with the Diamondbacks' strong pitcher Zac Gallen on the mound, this game has the potential to be a close and exciting matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's slider utilization has risen by 7.2% from last year to this one (3.4% to 10.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (93 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Since the start of last season, Ryan Mountcastle's 12% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 81st percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 79 games (+19.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 106 games (+12.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+15.10 Units / 46% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.01 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.87

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