Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Texas Rangers in an Interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a record of 34-14, are having a great season, while the Rangers have an average season with a record of 24-24.

The Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been impressive this season. Suarez has started 9 games and holds a perfect 8-0 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 1.37. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Rangers will send right-handed pitcher Jon Gray to the mound. Gray has started 9 games and has a solid 2-1 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 2.08. Like Suarez, his xFIP suggests potential regression in his performance.

In their last game, the Phillies defeated the Nationals with a score of 11-5, while the Rangers lost to the Angels with a score of 4-1. The Phillies were dominant in their victory and were considered heavy favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -235. The Rangers, despite the loss, were also favored in their game with a closing Moneyline price of -155.

The Phillies boast the 5th best offense in MLB this season, with a strong lineup led by Alec Bohm. Bohm has been their best hitter, with a .330 batting average and a .917 OPS. The Rangers, on the other hand, have the 11th best offense in MLB, with Marcus Semien leading the way. Semien has recorded 35 runs, 33 RBIs, and 9 home runs this season.

In terms of team rankings, the Phillies have the advantage in several categories. They rank 8th in team batting average, 16th in team home runs, and 10th in team stolen bases. The Rangers, however, excel in team batting average (2nd) and team home runs (5th), but struggle in stolen bases (25th).

Pitching-wise, the Phillies have a strong bullpen, ranking 4th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rangers rank 18th. This could give the Phillies an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the clear betting favorites with a moneyline of -175, implying a 61% win probability. The Rangers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, implying a 39% win probability.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Ranger Suarez (50.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Texas's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bryce Harper's batting average talent is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 41 games (+17.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games (+4.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games at home (+8.35 Units / 46% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.22 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.84

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