Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Detroit Tigers in an American League Central matchup at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 30-19, are having a great season, while the Tigers, with a record of 23-24, are having an average season.

The Royals will be the home team, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh. Marsh has started 7 games this year, boasting a 3-1 record and an impressive 2.43 ERA. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances. Marsh is projected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and surrendering 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks on average in this game.

The Tigers, on the other hand, will send out right-handed pitcher Casey Mize to the mound. Mize has started 8 games this year, with a 1-2 record and a solid 3.50 ERA. He is known for his high groundball rate, which could work in his favor against the Royals' offense that lacks power. Mize is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, striking out 3.6 batters, and giving up 6.0 hits and 1.2 walks on average in this game.

In their last game, the Royals defeated the Tigers with a score of 8-3. However, both teams had an equal chance to win, as indicated by the closing Moneyline price of -110 and an implied win probability of 50% for each team. The Royals' offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, while the Tigers' offense ranks 22nd. The Royals have a slight advantage in team batting average, while the Tigers struggle in both batting average and home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Royals and Tigers both have a 50% win probability for this game, making it a close matchup. However, based on the current odds, the Royals have a higher implied team total of 4.75 runs compared to the Tigers' 4.75 runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Casey Mize is expected to tally an average of 3.7 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Detroit Tigers have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+5.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 29 games (+18.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.35 vs Kansas City Royals 5.18

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