Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an American League matchup scheduled for May 3, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will take on the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 19-13, are having a great season so far, while the Rangers, with a record of 17-15, are having an above-average season.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brady Singer, who has been performing well this season. Singer has started six games with a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive 2.62 ERA. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may regress in future performances. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Singer is considered an average pitcher.

On the other hand, the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled this season. Lorenzen has started three games with a 2-1 win/loss record but has an ERA of 4.24, which is above average. His peripheral indicators also suggest that he may struggle going forward.

The Royals offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB this season, while the Rangers offense ranks 11th. However, the Rangers have excelled in team batting average and home runs, ranking 2nd and 5th respectively. The Royals, on the other hand, have been successful in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league.

Looking at the projections for the starting pitchers, Singer is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings on average, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 4.6 batters. However, he is projected to allow 6.1 hits and 1.8 walks, which are not favorable indicators. Lorenzen, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 3.7 batters. He is also expected to allow 5.7 hits and 1.8 walks.

In terms of the betting odds, the Royals are the home team and have a moneyline set at -115, with an implied win probability of 51%. The Rangers, as the away team, have a moneyline set at -105, with an implied win probability of 49%. The close odds suggest that this will be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen is projected to strikeout 3.8 hitters in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Extreme flyball hitters like Marcus Semien usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Jonah Heim profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Due to his large platoon split, Brady Singer will be at a disadvantage going up against 6 batters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

MJ Melendez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kansas City Royals batters as a unit have been among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (10th-) when it comes to their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+12.87 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 79 of their last 145 games (+15.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.12 vs Kansas City Royals 4.78

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