Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
  • Hayden Wesneski - Cubs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are set to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 3, 2024, at Wrigley Field. As the home team, the Cubs will look to continue their impressive season, boasting a record of 19-13. However, the Brewers, with a record of 19-11, have been having an equally great season.

Taking the mound for the Cubs is right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski, who has been solid this year. Wesneski has started one game and made three bullpen appearances, maintaining an impressive ERA of 0.87. Although his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests some regression, Wesneski has been a reliable force on the mound.

On the other side, the Brewers will start Joe Ross, a right-handed pitcher. Ross has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.40, but his xFIP indicates potential improvement going forward. Despite his inning and walk projections being below average, Ross has the ability to strike out batters.

The Cubs rank as the 14th best offense in MLB, with a good team batting average and stolen base ranking. In comparison, the Brewers boast the 3rd best offense in the league, despite lower rankings in batting average and home runs. Both teams have average bullpen rankings.

In terms of individual performances, the Cubs' best hitter this season has been Patrick Wisdom, while the Brewers have relied on Joseph Ortiz. Over the last 7 games, Wisdom has been the standout performer for the Cubs, while Ortiz has been the driving force for the Brewers.

When analyzing the matchup, it's notable that Wesneski is a low-walk pitcher facing a high-walk Brewers offense. This could potentially neutralize one of the Brewers' strengths and give Wesneski an advantage. Conversely, Ross is a high-walk pitcher facing a patient Cubs offense that excels at drawing walks. This could provide an opportunity for the Cubs to capitalize on Ross' control issues.

The current odds for the game suggest a close matchup, with the Cubs holding a slight advantage in win probability. However, the Brewers have a potent offense that cannot be underestimated. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game.

Overall, this National League Central matchup promises an exciting battle between two teams having great seasons. With strong pitching and offensive performances, both the Cubs and the Brewers will be aiming to secure a victory in this first game of the series.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected offense today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .332 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matt Mervis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .219 figure is considerably lower than his .305 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
• Blake Perkins has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 75% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.89 vs Chicago Cubs 3.9

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.