San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the San Diego Padres in a National League West matchup at Chase Field on May 3, 2024. The Diamondbacks, with a record of 14-18, are having a tough season, while the Padres, with a record of 16-18, are performing below average.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Slade Cecconi, a right-handed pitcher, while the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, also a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cecconi is ranked #152 out of approximately 350 pitchers, suggesting that he has been struggling this season. On the other hand, Cease is ranked #23, indicating that he has been performing exceptionally well.

Cecconi has started two games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.25. However, his 3.47 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Cease has started six games, with a win-loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.78. Similarly, his 3.87 xFIP indicates that he may not be able to sustain his current level of performance.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank as the 9th best team in MLB this season, while the Padres rank 13th. However, the Diamondbacks have a higher ranking in team batting average (#11) and stolen bases (#3), compared to the Padres' rankings of 20th and 7th, respectively. Both teams have an average ranking in team home runs.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Padres have the 7th best bullpen in MLB, according to our Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank 24th. This suggests that the Padres have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this will be a close game. The Diamondbacks have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Padres also have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs.

Considering the pitching matchup, Cecconi's control issues may neutralize the Padres' patient offense, potentially giving him the advantage. However, Cease's high strikeout ability may pose a challenge for the Diamondbacks' low-strikeout offense.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. The outcome will likely be determined by the performance of the starting pitchers and how the offenses fare against them.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to average, Dylan Cease has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ha-seong Kim has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Carroll's speed has fallen off this year. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.05 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Placing 3rd-least steep in the majors since the start of last season, Arizona Diamondbacks batters collectively have recorded a 10.7° launch angle (a reliable metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 131 games (+12.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.95 Units / 64% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.89 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.57

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