San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the San Francisco Giants in a National League matchup at Citizens Bank Park on May 3, 2024. The Phillies, who currently hold a record of 21-11 this season, are having a great campaign. On the other hand, the Giants are struggling with a below-average record of 15-17.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola, who has been a solid performer this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Nola is ranked as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started six games, with a win/loss record of 4-1 and an ERA of 3.20, which is considered great. However, peripheral indicators, such as his SIERA, xERA, and FIP, suggest that Nola has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward.

Opposing Nola on the mound will be Jordan Hicks, the Giants' right-handed pitcher. Hicks has also started six games this season, boasting a perfect 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.59. According to our Power Rankings, Hicks is ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP suggests he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

Offensively, the Phillies have been impressive this season, ranking as the 6th best team in MLB. They have shown strength in team batting average, ranking 8th, and stolen bases, ranking 10th. In contrast, the Giants' offense has struggled, ranking 20th overall. They have particularly struggled in team batting average, ranking 21st, and stolen bases, ranking 29th.

In terms of bullpens, both teams have strong rankings according to our Power Rankings. The Phillies have the 4th best bullpen in MLB, while the Giants have the 2nd best. This indicates that both teams have solid relievers who can contribute positively to the game.

Looking at the odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Giants, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

This year, there has been a decline in Patrick Bailey's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.17 ft/sec last year to 25.45 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average hurler, Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording an extra 6.5 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Johan Rojas who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the Philadelphia Phillies offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 116 games (+25.97 Units / 19% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.76 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.95

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