San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 5/21/2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants

May 21, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 21, 2024
  • Venue: PNC Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Logan Webb - Giants
    • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Giants -135, Pirates 115
Runline: Giants -1.5 125, Pirates 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
San Francisco Giants - 55% San Francisco Giants - 56.22%
Pittsburgh Pirates - 45% Pittsburgh Pirates - 43.78%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the San Francisco Giants at PNC Park. The Pirates, with a record of 22-26, are having a below-average season, while the Giants, with a record of 23-25, are also struggling. This National League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Pirates will be the home team, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez, who has had a challenging season so far. Perez has started nine games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.86. Despite his struggles, Perez's peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Giants will send right-handed pitcher Logan Webb to the mound. Webb has been one of the elite starting pitchers in MLB this season, ranking 12th out of approximately 350 pitchers according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his last start, Webb pitched six innings of scoreless baseball, showcasing his dominance on the mound.

The Pirates' offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 27th best in MLB. Their team batting average is also among the lowest, ranking 26th in the league. However, they have shown some prowess in stolen bases, ranking 12th in MLB. Their best hitter this season has been Bryan Reynolds, who has been a consistent contributor to their lineup.

The Giants' offense, while not outstanding, ranks as the 14th best in MLB. They have had some struggles with team batting average, ranking 21st in the league. However, their pitching staff has been a strong point, with their bullpen ranking as the second-best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Matt Chapman has been their standout hitter this season, providing consistent production at the plate.

In terms of the betting odds, the Pirates are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 43% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. The Giants, with a projected win probability of 57%, are favored to win this game. The current moneyline reflects a close matchup, with the Pirates at +115 and the Giants at -135.

Based on the projections, the Pirates have an average implied team total of 3.77 runs, while the Giants have an average implied team total of 4.23 runs. THE BAT X projects the Pirates to score 3.82 runs on average, while the Giants are projected to score 4.67 runs.

With Martin Perez, a low-strikeout pitcher, facing a high-strikeout Giants offense, the matchup may favor Perez. However, the Giants' overall strength and Logan Webb's dominant performance this season give them an edge in this game.

As the Pirates and Giants take the field, both teams will be looking to improve their records and secure a victory. It promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams striving to turn their seasons around.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curt Casali in the 10th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Today, Wilmer Flores is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.4% rate (96th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among every team in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Logan Webb

  • Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 71% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.62 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.81

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-134
69% SF
+114
31% PIT

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-122
10% UN
8.5/+102
90% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+120
88% SF
+1.5/-142
12% PIT

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SF
Team Stats
PIT
3.89
ERA
4.60
.247
Batting Avg Against
.252
1.24
WHIP
1.40
.302
BABIP
.304
6.8%
BB%
9.4%
23.1%
K%
21.9%
72.1%
LOB%
70.4%
.238
Batting Avg
.235
.389
SLG
.388
.703
OPS
.700
.314
OBP
.313
SF
Team Records
PIT
20-17
Home
17-18
16-21
Road
18-20
28-23
vRHP
22-25
8-15
vLHP
13-13
4-15
vs>.500
14-15
32-23
vs<.500
21-23
5-5
Last10
5-5
9-11
Last20
10-10
17-13
Last30
16-14
L. Webb
M. Pérez
163.0
Innings
N/A
25
GS
N/A
9-9
W-L
N/A
3.26
ERA
N/A
8.67
K/9
N/A
1.44
BB/9
N/A
0.94
HR/9
N/A
74.1%
LOB%
N/A
16.0%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.25
FIP
N/A
2.96
xFIP
N/A
.243
AVG
N/A
24.4%
K%
N/A
4.0%
BB%
N/A
3.16
SIERA
N/A

L. Webb

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 WSH
Adon N/A
W9-3 N/A
6
11
3
3
3
1
61-95
4/24 WSH
Adon N/A
W12-3 N/A
6.2
7
3
3
6
1
67-98
4/19 NYM
Scherzer N/A
L1-3 N/A
3.2
6
3
3
1
3
43-75
4/13 SD
Manaea N/A
W2-1 N/A
8
4
1
1
7
0
72-96
4/8 MIA
Alcantara N/A
W6-5 N/A
6
5
1
1
3
1
57-85

M. Pérez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SF PIT
SF PIT
Consensus
-138
+118
-134
+114
-135
+114
-135
+114
-138
+118
-132
+112
-134
+115
-137
+116
-135
+115
-135
+115
-135
+110
-135
+115
Open
Current
Book
SF PIT
SF PIT
Consensus
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+121)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-138)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+117)
+1.5 (-141)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+105)
8.5 (-119)
8.5 (-102)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+105)
9.0 (+102)
9.0 (-122)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
8.5 (-113)
8.5 (-107)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (+105)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (-105)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)