New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Houser - Mets
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On May 21, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will face off against the New York Mets at Progressive Field. As the home team, the Guardians will look to continue their successful season with a record of 31-17, while the Mets aim to turn their season around with a record of 21-26. This interleague matchup is the second game in the series between these two teams.

The Guardians have been having a great season so far, boasting a strong record and ranking as the 13th best offense in MLB. Their lineup, led by standout hitter Jose Ramirez, has been producing runs and displaying a balanced offensive attack. However, their power numbers have been lacking, as they currently rank last in team home runs. Despite this, their ability to steal bases has been a key factor in their success, ranking 7th in the league in stolen bases.

The Mets, on the other hand, have been struggling this season with a below-average record. Their offense ranks 20th in MLB, with Brandon Nimmo leading the way as their best hitter. They have shown some power, ranking 11th in team home runs, but their overall performance has been lackluster.

In terms of pitching, the Guardians are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, a right-handed pitcher who has had a challenging season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Carrasco is ranked as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Mets are projected to start Adrian Houser, another right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. Houser's ERA is high, but his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

Considering the pitching matchup, Carrasco's low strikeout rate may give the Mets an advantage, as they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. On the other hand, Houser's high groundball rate may work in favor of the Guardians, who have a lack of power in their lineup.

In their last game, the Guardians came out on top with a 3-1 victory over the Mets. The betting markets expected a close game, with the Guardians being the favorites. However, for today's game, THE BAT X projects the Guardians as the favorites with a 55% win probability, while the Mets are considered underdogs with a 45% win probability.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, both teams are expected to score. THE BAT X projects the Guardians to score an average of 5.62 runs, while the Mets are projected to score 5.32 runs.

As the Guardians look to continue their successful season, they have the advantage in this matchup. However, with baseball's unpredictable nature, anything can happen on the field. Fans can expect an exciting game between these two teams at Progressive Field.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Adrian Houser to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in MLB: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Extreme groundball bats like Jose Ramirez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Adrian Houser.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.26 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.57

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