San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a National League matchup on May 21, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds are set to face off against the San Diego Padres at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a record of 19-28 this season, are having a tough campaign, while the Padres hold a more average record of 25-25. The Reds are in need of a strong performance, and they will rely on left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott to lead them on the mound. The Padres, on the other hand, will count on right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove to deliver a solid performance.

Abbott, ranked as the 116th best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown promise with a record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.06. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face some challenges going forward. Musgrove, ranked 58th in MLB, has struggled with a 6.37 ERA. However, his 4.29 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and is poised for improvement.

The Reds offense, ranked 28th in MLB, will need to step up to provide support. Their best hitter this season has been Elly De La Cruz, who has recorded 35 runs, 9 home runs, and an impressive OPS of 0.829. Meanwhile, the Padres offense, ranked 8th in MLB, has been led by Jurickson Profar, who boasts a batting average of .335 and an outstanding OPS of 0.938.

Both teams are coming off losses in their previous games. The Reds fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers by a narrow score of 3-2, while the Padres were shut out by the Atlanta Braves, losing 3-0. Despite these recent setbacks, both teams have shown glimpses of their offensive prowess throughout the season.

According to the current odds, the Padres enter the game as slight favorites with a projected win probability of 58%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a closer matchup with the Padres holding a win probability of 58%. The implied win probabilities based on the moneyline odds also suggest a close game, with the Reds at 48% and Padres at 52%.

The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating the potential for a high-scoring affair. THE BAT X projects the Reds to score an average of 4.66 runs, while the Padres are projected to put up 5.77 runs on average. The projections also suggest that the Padres have a higher win probability than what the betting market implies, indicating potential value in betting on the Padres.

As the Reds look to turn their season around, they will rely on their offense and the left arm of Andrew Abbott. The Padres, with a balanced offense and Joe Musgrove on the mound, aim to continue their average season. With both teams hungry for a win, this matchup promises to be an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joe Musgrove to throw 70 pitches in today's game (least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Jurickson Profar will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Andrew Abbott in this game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In today's game, Fernando Tatis Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The San Diego Padres have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 away games (+12.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+12.10 Units / 37% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.62 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.64

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