San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keaton Winn - Giants
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the San Francisco Giants on May 4, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will look to continue their impressive season with a record of 22-11, while the Giants aim to improve their below-average season with a record of 15-18.

On the mound for the Phillies is left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been a standout performer this year. With a perfect 5-0 win/loss record and an exceptional ERA of 1.32, Suarez has been a key contributor to the Phillies' success. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 2.40 xFIP, suggest that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Suarez is right-handed pitcher Keaton Winn for the Giants. Winn has a solid record of 3-3 this season and an ERA of 3.18. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 3.94 xERA and 3.72 FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky and could experience a decline in performance going forward.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Phillies rank as the 6th best team in MLB, while the Giants rank 20th. The Phillies have a strong lineup, ranking 8th in team batting average and 10th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Giants struggle offensively, ranking 21st in team batting average and 29th in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the clear favorites with an implied win probability of 61%. They have an average implied team total of 4.22 runs. The Giants, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 39% and a very low implied team total of 3.28 runs.

In this matchup, the Phillies' strong offense, backed by Suarez's solid performance, gives them an advantage. However, Winn's ability to keep the Giants in the game cannot be discounted. It will be an intriguing National League matchup to watch.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Extreme flyball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Wilmer Flores pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's 90.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.8-mph decrease from last season's 92.2-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Collectively, Philadelphia Phillies batters have excelled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 6th-best in MLB.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 116 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 111 games (+25.07 Units / 19% ROI)
• Thairo Estrada has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 60% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.56 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4

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