Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League West matchup, the Seattle Mariners will visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros on May 4, 2024. The Astros, currently having a tough season with a 12-20 record, will be looking to turn things around in front of their home crowd. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been performing above average this season with a 17-15 record.

The Astros are projected to start left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has been a standout performer for the team. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Valdez is ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite talent. Having started three games this year, Valdez holds an impressive 1-0 win/loss record and an ERA of 2.60.

On the other side, the Mariners will send right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert to the mound. Gilbert has also been performing well this season, with a record of 2-0 and an excellent ERA of 2.03. Our Power Rankings consider Gilbert the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB. While not as elite as Valdez, he is still considered a strong pitcher.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Astros have been impressive, ranking as the fourth-best offense in MLB this season. Their batting average ranks 14th in the league, home runs rank ninth, and stolen bases rank 12th. In contrast, the Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking as the 26th best team in MLB. Their batting average ranks 24th, home runs rank 13th, and stolen bases rank 18th.

Looking at the projected team totals, the Astros have an average implied team total of 4.01 runs, while the Mariners have a lower implied team total of 3.49 runs. The Astros are considered the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%.

It is important to note that Valdez is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings on average, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 5.8 batters, but also giving up 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks. Gilbert, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 5.0 batters, but also giving up 5.7 hits and 1.4 walks.

With Valdez's strong performance, the Astros' potent offense, and their favorable home-field advantage, they have the edge in this matchup. However, Gilbert's ability to generate strikeouts against an Astros team that ranks fifth in the league in fewest strikeouts could be a factor to consider.

As always, it's important to remember that projections are just estimates, and anything can happen in a baseball game. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair. Fans and bettors alike can expect an exciting game between these division rivals.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (65.6% vs. 57.9% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Mitch Garver is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (93.7 mph) below where it was last season (94.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Yordan Alvarez's speed has fallen off this year. His 25.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.84 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 103 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 away games (+10.89 Units / 22% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games at home (+7.20 Units / 55% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.06 vs Houston Astros 4.64

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