San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies are set to face off against the San Francisco Giants in an exciting National League West matchup at Coors Field. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Rockies holding a dismal record of 8-26 and the Giants not faring much better at 15-21. However, every game presents an opportunity for redemption, and both teams will be looking to turn their season around.

On the mound for the Rockies will be right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson. Despite his team's struggles, Hudson has shown promise individually. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is ranked as the #261 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Although his win/loss record stands at 0-5, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward. Hudson's ERA of 5.93 is less favorable, but his xFIP of 5.02 indicates that he may have faced some unfortunate circumstances.

Opposing Hudson will be left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison for the Giants. Harrison has started seven games this year, boasting a 2-1 record and a more favorable ERA of 3.79. However, he is considered a below-average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Rockies offense has struggled this season, ranking as the #24 best in MLB. Their team batting average of .xxx and lack of stolen bases have contributed to their offensive woes. On the other hand, the Giants offense ranks slightly higher at #20, but they too have had their fair share of struggles. With both offenses underperforming, this game could be a battle of pitchers.

In terms of team rankings, the Giants have the advantage in bullpen strength. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider them the #2 best bullpen in MLB, while the Rockies rank #15. This could prove crucial in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 59%. The Rockies, despite being the home team, are considered underdogs with a 41% win probability. However, it's important to note that implied win probabilities are not always accurate predictors of game outcomes.

As we approach this matchup, keep an eye on the Rockies' best hitter, who will be looking to make an impact on the game. The Giants will rely on their own standout hitter to deliver at the plate. In the last seven games, Ryan McMahon has been the Rockies' top performer, while LaMonte Wade Jr. has been the Giants' standout hitter.

With both teams eager to break their losing streaks and turn their season around, this game promises to be an intriguing battle. Will the Rockies overcome their struggles and surprise the Giants, or will San Francisco capitalize on their strengths and secure a much-needed victory? Only time will tell as the two teams take the field at Coors Field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Colorado Rockies have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Chapman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Over his previous 3 starts, Dakota Hudson has seen a significant drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2053 rpm over the whole season to 1982 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Elias Diaz's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.22 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 7th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 77 games (+7.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 88 games (+24.02 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.90 Units / 38% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.83 vs Colorado Rockies 4.9

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