Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the New York Yankees are set to face off against the Houston Astros on May 7, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a season record of 23-13, have been having a great season, while the struggling Astros hold a record of 12-22, making it a tough year for them.

Taking the mound for the Yankees is right-handed pitcher Luis Gil, who has been projected to start. Gil has been performing well this season with a record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.19. However, it is worth noting that his 4.08 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance going forward.

Opposing Gil will be the Astros' right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander, who has started three games this season and holds a record of 1-0 with an excellent ERA of 2.08. Similar to Gil, Verlander's 4.70 xFIP indicates that he may have been benefiting from some luck and could regress in future outings.

This game marks the first in the series between these two teams, and both pitchers will be looking to set the tone for their respective clubs. The Yankees, known for their strong offense, rank seventh in MLB this season, showcasing their talent for scoring runs. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, which is an area they will be looking to improve upon. On the other hand, the Astros' offense ranks sixth in MLB, highlighting their ability to generate runs.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Yankees rank 21st, while the Astros rank 12th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Astros may have a slight advantage in the later innings.

In terms of betting odds, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline set at -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. The Astros, with a moneyline of +100, have an implied win probability of 48%. This indicates that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Overall, this matchup showcases two talented teams with different strengths. The Yankees' strong offense will be tested by Verlander, while the Astros' struggling season may find an opportunity against Gil's average projections. With both teams looking to secure a victory, fans can expect an exciting and closely fought game at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander has gone to his slider 6% less often this season (19.3%) than he did last season (25.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This season, there has been a decline in Yordan Alvarez's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.86 ft/sec last year to 24.8 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all starting pitchers, Luis Gil's fastball velocity of 95.8 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, batters like Austin Wells who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 49 away games (+19.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 41% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.92 vs New York Yankees 5

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