Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On May 7, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will be taking on the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. The Guardians, with a record of 23-12, are having a great season and will be looking to extend their success against the Tigers, who are currently 18-17 and having an average season.

The Guardians, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are scheduled to start left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, who has had a mixed performance this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Allen is ranked as the #162 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Despite his lower ranking, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Tigers will have right-handed pitcher Kenta Maeda on the mound. Maeda is considered a below-average pitcher, according to our Power Rankings. However, similar to Allen, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and may improve in future performances.

Looking at the offensive side, the Guardians rank 14th in MLB in overall offensive performance, with an average team batting average. However, their home run production ranks last in the league. On the other hand, the Tigers' offense ranks 25th in MLB, with a low team batting average and limited power.

In terms of their bullpens, the Guardians have the advantage, ranked as the 3rd best bullpen in MLB, while the Tigers rank 18th. This could play a significant role in the late innings of the game.

In terms of the betting market, the Guardians are favored to win with a moneyline of -130 and an implied win probability of 54%. The Tigers have a moneyline of +110 and an implied win probability of 46%. The close odds suggest that this will be a competitive game.

Overall, this game features a matchup between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. The Guardians' strong bullpen and average offense could give them an edge, especially with Logan Allen's potential for improvement. However, the Tigers will look to capitalize on Kenta Maeda's ability to limit walks against a patient Guardians offense. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, we can expect an average-scoring game.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda's fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (89.1 mph) below where it was last season (90.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Wenceel Perez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Jake Rogers, Parker Meadows).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Naylor's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.8 ft/sec last year to 24.57 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+17.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.43 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.88

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