Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In an upcoming National League matchup, the Miami Marlins will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on May 7, 2024. The Dodgers, with an impressive record of 23-13 this season, are having a great year, while the Marlins have struggled with a record of 10-26, making it a tough season for them.

The Dodgers will be the home team for this game, giving them the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They have been dominant at home, and their offense has been the best in MLB this season. Ranked #1 in overall offense, #12 in team batting average, and #2 in team home runs, the Dodgers have displayed their prowess at the plate. Their powerful lineup, led by their best hitter Shohei Ohtani, has been on fire in the last seven games, recording 9 hits, 5 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers are projected to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.91 this season, Yamamoto has been a key contributor to the Dodgers' success. He is known for his ability to strike out batters, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game. However, his projected innings pitched for this game is average at 6.0, and he is expected to allow 2.1 earned runs on average. Additionally, his projected 5.1 hits and 1.1 walks allowed per game are areas where he could improve.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have struggled offensively this season, ranking as the 29th best team in MLB. However, they have shown promise in team batting average, ranking 3rd overall. In the last seven games, their best hitter, Otto Lopez, has displayed a batting average of .333 and an OPS of 1.167. Despite their offensive struggles, the Marlins have a chance to capitalize on facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is a low-walk pitcher, while the Marlins have the 3rd least walks in MLB.

The Marlins are projected to start Edward Cabrera, who has had a challenging season with a record of 1-1 and an ERA of 6.05. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Cabrera is a high-groundball pitcher, but he will be facing a powerful Dodgers offense that has hit 186 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league. If Cabrera struggles to keep the ball in the air, it could favor the Dodgers.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Dodgers have the 7th best bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Marlins have the 28th best bullpen, indicating a potential advantage for the Dodgers in the later innings.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are the heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -315 and an implied win probability of 73%. The Marlins, being the underdogs, have a moneyline of +265 and an implied win probability of 27%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the dominant Dodgers and the struggling Marlins. The Dodgers' powerful offense and top-tier pitching give them an edge, but the Marlins have the opportunity to take advantage of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's low-walk tendencies. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams look to assert their dominance on the field.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

In terms of his batting average, Vidal Brujan has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .216 BA has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .148.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Miami Marlins offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Yoshinobu Yamamoto must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 61.5% of the time, grading out in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani's 19.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #5 club in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 72 of their last 128 games (+16.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+10.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+8.55 Units / 12% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.65 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.8

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