San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 7, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a season record of 21-15, are having a great season, while the Padres hold a 19-19 record, indicating an average performance so far.

The Cubs will take the field as the home team, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are scheduled to start the left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has been performing exceptionally well this season with a perfect 5-0 win/loss record and an impressive 0.78 ERA. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that his 3.16 xFIP is significantly higher than his ERA, indicating potential regression in his performance going forward.

On the other hand, the Padres will rely on right-handed pitcher Randy Vasquez, who has struggled this season with a 0-1 record and a high 5.87 ERA. Despite his poor numbers, his 5.22 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Cubs' offense ranks 13th best in MLB, showcasing their average performance this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league, and stolen bases, ranking 6th. The Padres' offense, on the other hand, ranks 8th best in MLB, with a strong showing in team home runs and stolen bases.

With the Cubs being the betting favorites, they have an implied win probability of 56% and a high team total of 4.81 runs. The Padres, as underdogs, hold a 44% win probability and an average team total of 4.19 runs.

It is important to note that Shota Imanaga, known for his low-walk pitching, will face a Padres offense that ranks 2nd in walks in MLB. This matchup could potentially neutralize one of the Padres' strengths, giving the Cubs an advantage.

Overall, this National League matchup promises an exciting game at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will look to continue their successful season, while the Padres aim to improve their performance and secure a win.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 9.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jake Cronenworth is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The San Diego Padres have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (34.9) provides evidence that Patrick Wisdom has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 43.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Patrick Wisdom pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 108 games (+8.40 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 57% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.35 vs Chicago Cubs 5.23

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