Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks

May 7, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 7, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
    • Frankie Montas - Reds

Betting Odds

Moneyline: D-Backs -130, Reds 110
Runline: D-Backs -1.5 125, Reds 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total: 9 -115

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Arizona Diamondbacks - 54% Arizona Diamondbacks - 55.81%
Cincinnati Reds - 46% Cincinnati Reds - 44.19%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In an upcoming National League matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park. The game is scheduled to be played on May 7, 2024, with the Reds as the home team and the Diamondbacks as the away team.

Both teams have been struggling this season, with the Reds holding a record of 16-18 and the Diamondbacks at 15-20. The Reds are having a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks are having a bad season.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Frankie Montas, a right-handed pitcher. Montas has started five games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.19, which is above average. However, his 4.76 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Zac Gallen, also a right-handed pitcher. Gallen has started six games this year, with a win-loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, his 3.93 xERA indicates that he may not be able to maintain his current performance level.

Looking at the team rankings, the Reds have the 27th best offense in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks rank 10th. The Reds have an average team batting average and home run ranking, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have an average batting average and home run ranking, but they rank third in stolen bases.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between struggling teams. The Reds will rely on their stolen base prowess and hope that Montas can deliver a solid performance, while the Diamondbacks will look to Gallen to continue his strong pitching. With both teams looking to turn their season around, this game could be a closely contested battle.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's 92-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph drop off from last year's 93-mph mark.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Blaze Alexander's true offensive skill to be a .296, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .076 gap between that figure and his actual .372 wOBA.

  • Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Recording 11.6 outs per GS this year on average, Frankie Montas ranks in the 2nd percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 117 games (+16.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Joc Pederson has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 31% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.59 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.64

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