Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On May 7, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Target Field. The Twins, with a season record of 20-14, are having a great season, while the Mariners, with a record of 19-16, are having an above-average season. This American League matchup is the second game in the series between these two teams.

The Twins will be the home team for this game, and they have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start Bailey Ober, a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ober is the #42 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a solid choice for the Twins. In contrast, the Mariners are projected to start Emerson Hancock, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB based on our Power Rankings.

Ober has started six games this year and has a win-loss record of 3-1. His ERA is 4.55, which is average, but his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Hancock, on the other hand, has started six games as well, with a win-loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 4.75.

The Twins have a strong offense, ranking as the 12th best in MLB this season. They excel in home runs, ranking 7th in the league, but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 24th. The Mariners' offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 22nd best in MLB, with a lower team batting average and fewer home runs than the Twins.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Twins have the advantage, ranking as the 8th best in MLB, while the Mariners' bullpen ranks 22nd. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, implying a win probability of 57%. The Mariners, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, with an implied win probability of 43%. The Twins also have a higher implied team total of 4.29 runs compared to the Mariners' 3.71 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Minnesota Twins have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, hitters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Placing in the 90th percentile, Bailey Ober put up a 13.3% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Trevor Larnach has big-time HR ability (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Emerson Hancock has a pitch-to-contact profile (12th percentile K%) — great news for Larnach.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.65 Units / 53% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.31 vs Minnesota Twins 5.14

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