Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In an interleague matchup scheduled for May 7, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Baltimore Orioles at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a season record of 17-17, are having an average season so far, while the Orioles boast an impressive record of 23-11 and are having a great season.

The Nationals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams, who has started six games this year. Williams has been performing well with a perfect 3-0 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 2.27. However, his 4.30 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could regress in future performances. In contrast, the Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes, who has started seven games this year. Burnes has a solid 3-1 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 2.61. Similar to Williams, his 3.13 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in performance going forward.

The Nationals offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB this season, displaying average talent overall. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 6th in the league. On the other hand, their power-hitting has been lacking, as they currently rank 29th in team home runs. The Orioles, in contrast, have the 2nd best offense in MLB, showcasing their strong talent. While they rank average in team batting average and home runs, their overall offensive performance has been impressive.

In terms of the pitching matchup, Burnes' high groundball rate of 49% could work in favor of the Nationals, who have a relatively low home run output. Additionally, the Nationals' ability to limit walks could pose a challenge for Burnes, who relies on throwing strikes.

Considering the current odds, the Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +170, giving them an implied win probability of 36%. Conversely, the Orioles are the favorites with a moneyline of -200, indicating an implied win probability of 64%. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average.

Overall, the Orioles have the edge in this matchup with their strong record and potent offense. However, the Nationals' pitching and ability to limit walks could pose a challenge for Burnes. It will be an intriguing game to watch as both teams look to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average hurler, Corbin Burnes has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 3.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.268) provides evidence that Jorge Mateo has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .221 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (50.2% compared to 42.3% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nick Senzel is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 92 games (+19.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 123 games (+22.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+10.90 Units / 60% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.92 vs Washington Nationals 3.74

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