Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup set to take place on May 7, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a season record of 21-15, are having a great season so far, while the Brewers are also performing well with a record of 20-14.

The Royals will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo. Lugo has been impressive this season with a win/loss record of 5-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.60. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lugo is ranked as the #149 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he is below average compared to other pitchers.

On the other side, the Brewers will send right-handed pitcher Colin Rea to the mound. Rea has started six games this year and has a perfect 3-0 record with an impressive ERA of 2.67. However, our Power Rankings indicate that Rea is one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Lugo is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings on average, allowing 2.8 earned runs with 4.5 strikeouts. However, he is also projected to allow 5.9 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which are considered terrible. Rea, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs with 3.3 strikeouts. His hits and walks projections are also considered terrible.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the 16th best team in MLB, while the Brewers rank as the 3rd best. However, the Royals have struggled in terms of team batting average and home runs, ranking 19th and 26th respectively. The Brewers have a good ranking in team stolen bases, sitting at 10th in MLB.

Considering the current odds, the Royals have a higher implied team total of 4.71 runs compared to the Brewers' 4.29 runs. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick's footspeed has increased this season. His 28.51 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.02 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Generating 19.3 outs per game per started this year on average, Seth Lugo places in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Kansas City Royals have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.6° angle is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (#6 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 63 games at home (+14.57 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.83 Units / 16% ROI)
• MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5 vs Kansas City Royals 5.25

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