Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Preview – 4/27/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

Apr 27, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 27, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
    • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Run Line: Phillies 1.5 -220, Padres -1.5 190
  • Money Line: Phillies -110, Padres -110
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Philadelphia Phillies - 50%
  • San Diego Padres - 50%

Projected Win %:

  • Philadelphia Phillies - 45.17%
  • San Diego Padres - 54.83%

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

The San Diego Padres are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in a National League matchup on April 27, 2024, at Petco Park. The Padres will be playing as the home team.

Both teams have had different levels of success this season. The Padres currently hold a 14-14 record and are having an average season so far. On the other hand, the Phillies have been performing well with a 16-10 record, indicating that they are having a great season.

The projected starting pitchers for this game are Dylan Cease for the Padres and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Cease is a right-handed pitcher, while Suarez is a left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cease is ranked as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Suarez is ranked 35th. This suggests that Cease is considered a great pitcher, while Suarez is considered good.

Cease has started five games this season and has a record of 3-1. His ERA stands at an excellent 1.82, but his 3.57 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and his performance may not be sustainable going forward. On the other hand, Suarez has also started five games and has a perfect record of 4-0. His ERA is an impressive 1.36, but his 2.51 xFIP suggests that he may regress in future performances.

Looking at the offensive capabilities of both teams, the Padres rank 6th best in MLB this season, while the Phillies rank 13th. The Padres have a strong home run-hitting ability, ranking 10th in MLB, and a good stolen base ranking at 7th. The Phillies, on the other hand, have a higher batting average ranking at 8th but rank lower in home runs at 16th and stolen bases at 10th.

Taking into consideration the strength of the bullpens, the Padres have the 6th best bullpen in MLB, while the Phillies rank 24th. This could play a role in determining the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Padres are the slight favorites with a moneyline set at -115, implying a 51% chance of winning. The Phillies have a moneyline of -105, indicating a 49% chance of winning.

Ultimately, this game is expected to be a close match-up, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. The outcome will likely come down to the performances of Cease and Suarez on the mound, as well as the offensive production from both teams.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #6 HR venue in the majors — in today's game.

  • This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

San Diego's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Johan Rojas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease projects as the 7th-best pitcher in MLB currently when estimating his strikeout skill, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all major league teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 116 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 31% ROI)

Phillies vs Padres Prediction: Phillies 3.88 - Padres 4.04

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-104
42% PHI
-116
58% SD

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-122
38% UN
7.5/+102
62% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+164
77% PHI
+1.5/-198
23% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PHI
Team Stats
SD
3.95
ERA
3.83
.238
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.24
WHIP
1.28
.290
BABIP
.289
7.8%
BB%
9.0%
23.8%
K%
23.5%
72.2%
LOB%
75.4%
.255
Batting Avg
.240
.419
SLG
.413
.742
OPS
.739
.323
OBP
.327
PHI
Team Records
SD
28-10
Home
18-21
20-14
Road
19-18
30-12
vRHP
26-23
18-12
vLHP
11-16
10-8
vs>.500
14-14
38-16
vs<.500
23-25
5-5
Last10
5-5
11-9
Last20
9-11
19-11
Last30
15-15
R. Suárez
D. Cease
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

R. Suárez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

D. Cease

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 LAA
Sandoval N/A
W3-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
11
0
64-93
4/27 KC
Greinke N/A
W7-3 N/A
6
3
2
2
9
3
65-99
4/15 TB
Rasmussen N/A
W3-2 N/A
5.2
3
1
1
8
2
63-91
4/9 DET
Mize N/A
W5-2 N/A
5
2
1
1
8
3
46-79
10/10 HOU
Garcia N/A
W12-6 N/A
1.2
2
3
3
2
3
20-44

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PHI SD
PHI SD
Consensus
-105
-112
-104
-116
-105
-115
-102
-118
-104
-112
-102
-116
-103
-115
-103
-114
-105
-115
-105
-115
-105
-115
-105
-115
-105
-115
+100
-120
Open
Current
Book
PHI SD
PHI SD
Consensus
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-209)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-194)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-210)
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+185)
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-240)
-1.5 (+190)
+1.5 (-240)
-1.5 (+190)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-210)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)