Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -140, Orioles -1.5 120
• Money Line: Athletics 155, Orioles -175
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 38%
• Baltimore Orioles - 62%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 40.02%
• Baltimore Orioles - 59.98%

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Oakland Athletics on April 27, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a record of 16-9, are having a great season so far, while the Athletics, with a record of 11-16, are struggling.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin, who has been a reliable presence in the rotation. Irvin has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.64. Despite his average ERA, his 4.14 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher JP Sears. Sears has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.37. However, his 5.36 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances.

The Orioles offense has been a force to be reckoned with this season, ranking as the #3 best in MLB. Their lineup boasts depth and power, ranking #14 in team batting average and #17 in both home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Athletics offense has struggled, ranking as the #28 best in MLB. They currently sit at the bottom in team batting average (#30) and team home runs (#24), but they excel in stolen bases, ranking #5.

Both teams have contrasting bullpen rankings. The Orioles bullpen is considered the #12 best in MLB, while the Athletics bullpen ranks #25. This could play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the favorites with a moneyline of -170, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. The Athletics, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in the game.

The Orioles have been led by their standout hitter, Gunnar Henderson, who has been on a tear over the last seven games. He has recorded 9 hits, 8 runs, 5 RBIs, 2 home runs, 1 stolen base, and boasts a batting average of .360 and an OPS of 1.174. The Athletics' top performer over the last week has been Lawrence Butler, who has hit 1 home run and has a batting average of .267 and an OPS of .922.

With the Orioles having the edge in both pitching and offense, they look poised to continue their strong season against the struggling Athletics. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Athletics will be looking to turn their season around with a victory in this game. It will be an exciting matchup to watch, full of potential for both teams to showcase their skills on the field.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over JP Sears in this game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.J. Bleday has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of every team in action today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Notching 5 homers over the past 14 days, Gunnar Henderson has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

James McCann hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 104 games (+20.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.74 Units / 44% ROI)
• Tyler Nevin has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 42% ROI)

Athletics vs Orioles Prediction: Athletics 3.68 - Orioles 4.3

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