Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -130, Braves -1.5 110
• Money Line: Guardians 160, Braves -185
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 37%
• Atlanta Braves - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 39.86%
• Atlanta Braves - 60.14%

Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Atlanta Braves will host the Cleveland Guardians at Truist Park on April 27, 2024. The Braves, who currently hold a stellar record of 18-6 this season, are having a fantastic campaign. On the other hand, the Guardians are also performing exceptionally well with a record of 18-8.

The Braves are projected to start their right-handed pitcher, Charlie Morton, who has been solid on the mound. Morton has made four starts this year, boasting a 2-0 win/loss record with an average ERA of 4.70. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Morton is ranked as the 99th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350, suggesting that he is an average pitcher. However, his 3.99 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Guardians, the away team, will counter with their right-handed pitcher, Tanner Bibee. Bibee has also started five games this year, maintaining a perfect 2-0 record with an average ERA of 4.44. According to our Power Rankings, Bibee is ranked as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350, making him an above-average pitcher. However, his 5.53 xERA suggests that he has been lucky thus far and may not perform as well in the future.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Braves currently have the best offense in MLB. They rank first in team batting average and team home runs, showcasing their impressive hitting ability. The Guardians, while not as potent, have a solid offense, ranking ninth overall. They excel in stolen bases, where they hold the seventh spot in MLB.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Braves hold the advantage, ranked as the fifth-best bullpen in MLB, as per our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Guardians have an average bullpen, ranked eleventh.

Considering the projections, the Braves are the favorites in this game with a strong implied win probability of 63%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a high implied team total of 5.14 runs. Conversely, the Guardians are the underdogs with a 37% implied win probability. THE BAT X projects them to score an average of 3.86 runs.

In this intriguing matchup, the Braves will look to capitalize on their offensive dominance, while the Guardians will try to rely on their solid pitching to secure the victory. With the Braves having the edge in nearly every aspect, it will be an uphill battle for the Guardians.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Bashing 3 homers in the past 14 days, Jose Ramirez has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Estevan Florial hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average pitcher, Charlie Morton has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 5.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Atlanta Braves today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .341, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .355 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 122 games (+7.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.10 Units / 54% ROI)

Guardians vs Braves Prediction: Guardians 4.07 - Braves 4.76

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