Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/8/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

Jun 8, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Details

  • Date: June 8, 2024
  • Venue: London Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
    • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phillies -170, Mets 150
Runline: Phillies -1.5 -110, Mets 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 10 -110

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Philadelphia Phillies - 61% Philadelphia Phillies - 57.33%
New York Mets - 39% New York Mets - 42.67%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off on June 8, 2024, at London Stadium, the contrast between these National League East rivals couldn't be more stark. The Mets are struggling with a 27-35 record, while the Phillies are riding high at 44-19. This series opener has significant implications, especially for the Phillies as they look to extend their impressive season.

On the mound, the Mets will start Sean Manaea, who has had an up-and-down year with a 3-2 record and a 3.63 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest some regression is likely, as his xFIP is 4.29, indicating he's been somewhat fortunate. Manaea's most recent outing was a rough one, allowing five earned runs over six innings on June 1. Facing a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 6th in both team batting average and home runs, Manaea will have his work cut out for him. The Phillies also draw the 3rd most walks in MLB, which could spell trouble for Manaea given his 9.9% walk rate.

Ranger Suarez, the Phillies' starter, has been stellar this season with a 9-1 record and an exceptional 1.70 ERA. Despite a slightly inflated xFIP of 2.65, Suarez has consistently delivered quality starts. In his last outing on June 1, he pitched two scoreless innings before being pulled early. Suarez will be up against a Mets offense that is average overall but ranks 9th in home runs, posing a potential challenge.

Offensively, the Mets' Francisco Lindor has been a steady presence, while Luis Torrens has been their standout performer over the last week, boasting a .300 batting average and 1.364 OPS. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper continues to anchor the Phillies' lineup, complemented by Nick Castellanos, who has been hot recently with a .263 average and .860 OPS over the past week.

The bullpen battle also favors the Phillies, whose relievers rank 5th in MLB, compared to the Mets' 21st-ranked bullpen. This disparity could play a crucial role in the later innings.

The betting market heavily favors the Phillies with a moneyline of -175, translating to a 62% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests the Mets have a 43% chance of winning, which is 5% higher than the market implies. This discrepancy indicates potential value in betting on the Mets, despite their underdog status.

With both teams coming off convincing wins—New York's 9-1 victory over the Nationals and Philadelphia's 2-0 shutout of the Brewers—this matchup in London promises intrigue and excitement.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in London Stadium — the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

  • This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Kyle Schwarber's 16.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has used his sinker 32.1% more often this season (32.8%) than he did last season (0.7%).

  • Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

J.D. Martinez's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 26.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.57 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The New York Mets have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.9° figure is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#3 overall).

  • If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 47 games (+18.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.11 vs New York Mets 4.94

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-162
88% PHI
+138
12% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-108
29% UN
9.5/-112
71% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-108
90% PHI
+1.5/-112
10% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PHI
Team Stats
NYM
3.95
ERA
4.55
.238
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.24
WHIP
1.38
.290
BABIP
.297
7.8%
BB%
9.9%
23.8%
K%
22.5%
72.2%
LOB%
72.3%
.255
Batting Avg
.236
.419
SLG
.399
.742
OPS
.715
.323
OBP
.317
PHI
Team Records
NYM
30-12
Home
18-23
20-14
Road
18-16
31-13
vRHP
26-27
19-13
vLHP
10-12
15-9
vs>.500
15-20
35-17
vs<.500
21-19
4-6
Last10
8-2
12-8
Last20
14-6
18-12
Last30
16-14
R. Suárez
S. Manaea
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

R. Suárez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

S. Manaea

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/30 PIT
Brubaker N/A
L6-7 N/A
6.2
5
3
3
6
3
72-110
4/24 LAD
Kershaw N/A
L2-10 N/A
4.1
6
7
6
5
3
52-86
4/18 CIN
Lodolo N/A
W4-1 N/A
6
6
1
1
6
2
60-78
4/13 SF
Webb N/A
L1-2 N/A
6
4
2
2
6
2
49-86
4/8 ARI
Kelly N/A
W3-0 N/A
7
0
0
0
7
1
66-88

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PHI NYM
PHI NYM
Consensus
-155
+135
-162
+138
-155
+130
-170
+142
-162
+136
-164
+138
-165
+140
-162
+138
-160
+135
-175
+148
-150
+125
-160
+135
Open
Current
Book
PHI NYM
PHI NYM
Consensus
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-117)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
10.5 (-103)
10.5 (-118)
9.5 (-111)
9.5 (-110)
10.0 (-115)
10.0 (-105)
9.5 (-112)
9.5 (-108)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-106)
9.5 (-114)
10.0 (-117)
10.0 (-104)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-109)
10.0 (-115)
10.0 (-105)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-110)
10.0 (-115)
10.0 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.5 (-105)