Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 6/8/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

Jun 8, 2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Details

  • Date: June 8, 2024
  • Venue: Comerica Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
    • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers -165, Tigers 140
Runline: Brewers -1.5 100, Tigers 1.5 -120
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 60% Milwaukee Brewers - 60.41%
Detroit Tigers - 40% Detroit Tigers - 39.59%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 8, 2024, fans at Comerica Park are in for an intriguing interleague matchup. This is the second game of the series, with the Tigers hoping to improve upon their average season record of 31-32. The Brewers, on the other hand, are enjoying a strong season at 37-26. The Tigers' recent struggles contrast with the Brewers, who are eyeing a potential playoff run.

On the mound, Detroit will start right-hander Casey Mize, who has had a mixed season with a 1-3 record and a 4.70 ERA over 11 starts. However, Mize's peripheral stats, such as his 4.17 xFIP, suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Mize is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.3 batters on average today according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. The Tigers will need a solid performance from Mize to contain the Brewers' potent offense, which ranks 4th in MLB this season.

Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who has been impressive with a 4-3 record and a 3.74 ERA across 12 starts. Peralta's 3.01 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky as well, and his projections suggest he could shine today. He is expected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters on average. The Brewers will look to exploit Detroit's underwhelming offense, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Offensively, Milwaukee holds a significant edge. The Brewers boast the 5th-best team batting average and are 3rd in stolen bases, making them a dynamic threat. The Tigers, in contrast, rank near the bottom in most offensive categories, including 28th in stolen bases, which highlights their struggle to manufacture runs.

In terms of recent performances, Zach McKinstry has been a bright spot for the Tigers, hitting .400 with a 1.400 OPS over the last week. For Milwaukee, Blake Perkins has led the charge, hitting .389 with a 1.056 OPS in the same span.

The Brewers' bullpen, ranked 9th in MLB, will look to maintain its edge over the Tigers' 12th-ranked bullpen. With a big betting line favoring the Brewers (-170), and an implied team total of 4.47 runs, Milwaukee appears poised to continue their strong season against a struggling Detroit squad.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has utilized his curveball 6.8% less often this year (5.7%) than he did last year (12.5%).

  • Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Gio Urshela's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.18 ft/sec last year to 25.21 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Riley Greene has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.56 vs Detroit Tigers 3.42

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-176
85% MIL
+149
15% DET

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-115
5% UN
8.0/-105
95% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-105
96% MIL
+1.5/-115
4% DET

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIL
Team Stats
DET
4.04
ERA
4.46
.232
Batting Avg Against
.244
1.22
WHIP
1.27
.275
BABIP
.289
8.2%
BB%
7.6%
23.0%
K%
22.2%
73.6%
LOB%
68.5%
.233
Batting Avg
.234
.377
SLG
.374
.689
OPS
.673
.312
OBP
.299
MIL
Team Records
DET
20-11
Home
15-19
20-17
Road
17-16
32-20
vRHP
25-28
8-8
vLHP
7-7
10-13
vs>.500
10-16
30-15
vs<.500
22-19
5-5
Last10
4-6
12-8
Last20
9-11
17-13
Last30
13-17
F. Peralta
C. Mize
128.0
Innings
10.0
23
GS
2
9-8
W-L
0-1
4.08
ERA
5.40
11.04
K/9
3.60
3.38
BB/9
1.80
1.34
HR/9
0.90
71.5%
LOB%
66.2%
14.5%
HR/FB%
5.6%
4.01
FIP
4.21
3.76
xFIP
5.58
.217
AVG
.302
29.4%
K%
8.9%
9.0%
BB%
4.4%
3.72
SIERA
5.58

F. Peralta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 CIN
rrez N/A
W18-4 N/A
5
5
3
3
7
2
63-98
4/28 PIT
Quintana N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
3
0
0
7
0
59-92
4/22 PHI
Suarez N/A
L2-4 N/A
5
3
1
1
6
2
54-89
4/15 STL
Mikolas N/A
L1-10 N/A
3
7
6
6
4
2
49-77
4/10 CHC
Stroman N/A
W5-4 N/A
4
3
3
3
6
4
46-88

C. Mize

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/14 KC
Greinke N/A
W4-2 N/A
5
6
2
2
2
2
53-88
4/9 CHW
Cease N/A
L2-5 N/A
5
7
4
4
2
0
51-81
9/29 MIN
Pineda N/A
L2-5 N/A
4
5
3
3
4
0
42-65
9/24 KC
Hernandez N/A
L1-3 N/A
3
2
1
1
3
0
30-41
9/17 TB
Patino N/A
L4-7 N/A
3
3
1
1
3
1
33-53

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIL DET
MIL DET
Consensus
-165
+144
-176
+149
-175
+145
-175
+145
-166
+140
-172
+144
-167
+143
-186
+155
-170
+143
-170
+143
-165
+140
-175
+145
Open
Current
Book
MIL DET
MIL DET
Consensus
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-124)
-1.5 (-109)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)