Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Jose Butto - Mets

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the New York Mets will take on the Philadelphia Phillies on May 14, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 19-21, are having a below-average season, while the Phillies boast an impressive 29-13 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Mets will be the home team for this game, hoping to turn their season around in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Butto, who has started six games this year. Butto has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an excellent ERA of 3.00. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola, a right-handed pitcher, has started eight games this season, with a win/loss record of 4-2 and a good ERA of 3.67. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Nola is ranked as the #34 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his talent on the mound.

The Mets offense ranks #24 in MLB in team batting average this season, while the Phillies offense ranks #8, showcasing their stronger hitting performance. However, the Mets rank #11 in team home runs, while the Phillies rank #16, suggesting that the Mets have an average power hitting ability.

Over the last seven games, the Mets' best hitter has been Pete Alonso, who has recorded 8 hits, 4 runs, 6 RBIs, and 1 home run, with a batting average of .400 and an OPS of 1.205. The Phillies' best hitter during the same period has been Bryson Stott, who has recorded 9 hits, 7 runs, 8 RBIs, and 1 home run, with a batting average of .529 and an OPS of 1.506.

Based on the current odds, the Mets are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +120, implying a win probability of 44%. On the other hand, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, suggesting a win probability of 56%.

With the Phillies having a stronger overall record and a higher implied team total of 4.27 runs, they enter this game as the favorites. However, the Mets will look to rely on the home-field advantage and the pitching performance of Jose Butto to defy the odds and secure a victory.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Aaron Nola in the 80th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Alec Bohm has been lucky this year, posting a .402 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .320 — a .082 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Butto has recorded a .240 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the majors on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Since the start of last season, J.D. Martinez's 17.1% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.9° figure is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 106 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 64% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.58 vs New York Mets 4.03

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