Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On May 14, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Kansas City Royals at T-Mobile Park in an American League matchup. The Mariners, with a record of 22-19, are having an above-average season, while the Royals boast an impressive record of 25-17, indicating a great season for them.

The Mariners will send right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert to the mound, who is currently ranked as the #51 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gilbert has started 8 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.94. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially see a decline in performance going forward.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha. Wacha has started 8 games as well, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.15. However, his 4.34 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky this season and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Mariners rank #24 in team batting average, #13 in team home runs, and #18 in team stolen bases in MLB this season. The Royals, on the other hand, rank #19 in team batting average, #26 in team home runs, and an impressive #4 in team stolen bases.

Looking at the projected pitching matchup, Logan Gilbert is a high-flyball pitcher, while the Royals have shown little power this season. This could give Gilbert an advantage, as the Royals may struggle to turn his flyballs into home runs. On the other hand, Michael Wacha is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Mariners offense, which could work in his favor.

The game total for today's matchup is currently set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Mariners are considered the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Royals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

As the Mariners look to continue their above-average season, they will rely on the strong pitching performance of Logan Gilbert. However, the Royals, having a great season themselves, will aim to capitalize on the potential improvement of Michael Wacha on the mound.

It will be an intriguing matchup between these two teams, and the outcome could have implications for their respective playoff hopes. Baseball fans can expect a competitive game as the Mariners and Royals battle it out at T-Mobile Park.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha projects to strikeout 6.1 batters today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (68.1% compared to 57.9% last season) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Mitch Haniger's footspeed has fallen off this season. His 26.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.66 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+9.16 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.75 Units / 84% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.69 vs Seattle Mariners 4.05

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