Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

In a National League West matchup, the San Diego Padres will host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park on May 14, 2024. The Padres, with a season record of 22-21, are having an average season so far. On the other hand, the Rockies have struggled this season with a record of 12-28, making it a terrible season for them.

The Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, a right-handed pitcher who has been exceptional this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cease is ranked as the #14 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him an elite player. In his eight starts this year, Cease has a Win/Loss record of 5-2 with an impressive ERA of 2.19. However, his 3.33 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate this season and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Rockies are projected to start Cal Quantrill, another right-handed pitcher. Quantrill has had a decent season with a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.94. However, his 4.53 xFIP indicates that he has also been lucky this year, and his performance may decline going forward.

Cease's strength lies in his high strikeout rate (32.4 K%) which could pose a challenge to the Rockies offense, known for having the third-most strikeouts in MLB. This advantage in pitching may give the Padres an edge in the game.

The Padres offense ranks 20th in MLB in team batting average, indicating an area of weakness. However, they excel in team home runs, ranking 10th, and stolen bases, ranking 7th. On the other hand, the Rockies offense ranks 18th in team batting average, indicating an average performance. They struggle in both home runs, ranking 24th, and stolen bases, ranking last in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Padres are heavily favored with a moneyline of -270, implying a win probability of 71%. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +230, implying a win probability of 29%.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive performance, the Padres seem to have the upper hand in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Rockies will look to defy the odds and secure a victory.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 15.6% more often this year (38%) than he did last year (22.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Since the start of last season, Sean Bouchard's 20% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Colorado Rockies batters collectively have been one of the worst in MLB since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.3-mph jump from last season's 94.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 38 away games (+10.46 Units / 26% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 2.82 vs San Diego Padres 4.46

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