Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Kyle Bradish - Orioles

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On May 14, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This American League East matchup promises an exciting clash between two teams with contrasting records this season.

The Orioles, with an impressive 26-14 record, are having a great season so far. As the home team, they will aim to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have a below-average season with a 19-22 record. As the away team, they will look to turn things around in this series.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Bradish, who has been performing exceptionally well this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bradish is ranked as the #30 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His ERA of 1.86 showcases his excellence on the mound, although his 2.85 xFIP suggests that he may regress slightly in future performances.

Opposing Bradish, the Blue Jays will rely on right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt. While Bassitt is ranked lower in our Power Rankings at #60, his 5.06 ERA does not accurately reflect his true potential. His 4.25 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to improve going forward.

When it comes to offense, the Orioles rank #14 in MLB in team batting average, while the Blue Jays rank an impressive #5. However, in terms of home runs and stolen bases, both teams have average rankings. These rankings provide an estimate of underlying talent regardless of actual year-to-date performance.

In their last seven games, the Orioles have seen impressive performances from Jordan Westburg, their best hitter during this period. Westburg has recorded 8 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base with a batting average of .364 and an OPS of .985. On the other side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the standout player for the Blue Jays in their last seven games, tallying 11 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Guerrero Jr. boasts a remarkable batting average of .500 and an OPS of 1.093.

With an over/under of 8.5 runs, this game is expected to be an average-scoring affair. The Orioles are considered the favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. The Blue Jays, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

As the Orioles continue their strong season, they will aim to secure another victory at home. However, the Blue Jays have the offensive firepower to challenge their opponents. This game promises to be an intriguing battle between two teams with different records but the potential for an exciting matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Justin Turner are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Bradish.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in the game: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Because groundball batters hold a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Kyle Bradish and his 48.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in today's game going up against 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Stowers's 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) is in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 82 games (+20.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 110 games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 42% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.09 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.51

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