Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 10, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a disappointing record of 10-29 this season, are struggling, while the Phillies have been dominant with a stellar record of 26-12.

The Marlins will be relying on left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers to turn their fortunes around. Rogers, despite his struggles this season with an ERA of 6.15, has shown promise with a 4.19 xFIP, indicating that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Phillies will start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been in excellent form with a perfect 6-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.72. However, his 2.59 xFIP suggests that he may regress slightly in future performances.

This game marks the first in a series between the Marlins and Phillies, and both teams will be eager to start on a positive note. The Marlins, despite their poor record, have shown some strength in team batting average, ranking third in MLB. However, their lack of power, ranking 28th in home runs, may pose a challenge against Suarez, a high-groundball pitcher. The Phillies, meanwhile, boast the third-best offense in MLB, with a strong batting average and power.

In terms of the bullpen, the Phillies have a distinct advantage, ranking third in MLB according to our power rankings. The Marlins, in contrast, have struggled and sit at a disappointing 28th. This could prove crucial in the later stages of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies enter the game as heavy favorites with an implied win probability of 64%, while the Marlins face an uphill battle with a win probability of 36%.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing matchup between two teams with contrasting seasons. The Phillies' dominant record and strong offense make them the team to beat, but the Marlins will look to rally behind their home advantage and the potential of Trevor Rogers to pull off an upset. With both teams hungry for a win, fans can expect an exciting showdown at LoanDepot Park.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball pitchers have a substantial advantage over flyball bats, Ranger Suarez and his 51.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in this outing facing 4 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Despite posting a .409 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Bohm has experienced some positive variance given the .089 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 7 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Trevor Rogers will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dane Myers is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.70 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 65 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 35 games (+9.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.95 vs Miami Marlins 3.79

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