Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Guaranteed Rate Field. This American League Central matchup promises an interesting battle between two teams with contrasting records and performances this season.

The Chicago White Sox, who currently hold a disappointing record of 10-28, are enduring a tough season. Their offense has struggled, ranking as the worst in MLB, with low rankings in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. The White Sox's pitching has also faced challenges, with their bullpen ranking as one of the worst in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The White Sox are projected to start left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet, who has shown potential as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Crochet has started eight games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.31. However, his 2.90 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Facing Crochet will be the Cleveland Guardians' right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Despite the Guardians' overall strong season with a record of 24-14, Carrasco has struggled individually. His ERA stands at 5.67, but his 4.90 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Guardians have been performing better than the White Sox this season. Although their team batting average is only average, they rank higher in stolen bases and have the 15th best offense in MLB according to our Power Rankings.

The White Sox's best hitter this season has been Paul DeJong, who has been on a hot streak over the last seven games. In contrast, the Guardians' best hitter over the past week has been Josh Naylor, displaying an impressive batting average and OPS.

Considering the projected performances of Crochet and Carrasco, the Guardians may have an advantage. Crochet's high-strikeout ability may be hindered by the Guardians' low-strikeout offense, while his high-flyball tendency may be advantageous against the Guardians' lack of power. On the other hand, Carrasco's control issues could be neutralized by the White Sox's impatience at the plate.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and evenly matched moneylines, the odds suggest a close game between these two teams. The White Sox will look to bounce back and salvage their season, while the Guardians aim to continue their strong performance.

Overall, this matchup presents an intriguing clash between struggling and successful teams. Will the White Sox break their streak of losses, or will the Guardians continue their winning ways? The game on May 10 will provide the answers.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco has relied on his change-up 6.7% less often this year (23.2%) than he did last season (29.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.300) provides evidence that Tyler Freeman has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .223 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all SPs, Garrett Crochet's fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 97th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Paul DeJong has a ton of pop (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The 2nd-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 104 games (+13.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.95 vs Chicago White Sox 3.98

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