St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
  • Robert Gasser - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in an exciting National League Central matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a record of 22-15 this season, are having a great season, while the struggling Cardinals hold a record of 15-22.

The Brewers will have home-field advantage as they take on the Cardinals. They are projected to start left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser, who is considered below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gasser is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs. While his strikeout projection is below-average, he is projected to struggle with allowing hits and walks.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will send right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn to the mound. Lynn has started seven games this year and has a win/loss record of 1-0. His ERA of 3.28 is great, but his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Lynn is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow an above-average 2.6 earned runs. He is also expected to struggle with hits and walks.

The Brewers have a strong offense, ranking as the 4th best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average ranks low at 27th. They excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th in the league. On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled offensively, ranking as the 28th best team in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 7th, and they excel in home runs, ranking 5th.

According to THE BAT X, the Brewers have a higher projected win probability of 51% compared to the Cardinals' 49%. The betting markets also suggest a close game, with the Brewers favored at -135 and the Cardinals at +115.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, while the Cardinals have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs. THE BAT X projects the Brewers to score an average of 4.20 runs, while the Cardinals are projected to score 4.37 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Lance Lynn has relied on his cutter 7% more often this year (30.2%) than he did last season (23.2%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This year, there has been a decline in Masyn Winn's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.13 ft/sec last year to 28.6 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee's 88.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in the majors: #25 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.93 Units / 14% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 41 away games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.3 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.03

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