Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The game on May 10, 2024, is set to be an exciting Interleague matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the Texas Rangers. The Colorado Rockies, who are having a terrible season with a record of 9-28, will be looking to turn things around as the home team at Coors Field. On the other hand, the Texas Rangers are having a good season with a record of 22-17 and will be aiming to continue their success as the away team.

The Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, who has started 7 games this year. Gomber has a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 3.79, which is considered good. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. In contrast, the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who has started 7 games with a record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.50. Similar to Gomber, Gray's 3.49 xFIP indicates potential regression in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Rockies rank as the 25th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average of 18th and a poor ranking in home runs and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Rangers have a strong offense, ranking 9th in MLB with a great team batting average and a high ranking in home runs. However, both teams struggle with stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Rockies are a big underdog with a moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%. The Rangers, as the betting favorite, have a moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%. The Game Total for the game is set at 10.0 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game.

With the Rangers having a higher projected win probability and a strong offense, they enter the game as the favorite. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Rockies will look to defy the odds and turn their season around with a strong performance at home. It will be an intriguing matchup between the struggling Rockies and the successful Rangers, and fans can expect an exciting game at Coors Field.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray has relied on his slider 5.3% more often this year (45.1%) than he did last year (39.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This year, there has been a decline in Jonah Heim's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.77 ft/sec last year to 24.82 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.1) provides evidence that Brendan Rodgers has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 9.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Colorado Rockies bats as a unit rank in the cellar of the majors since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) when it comes to their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games at home (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+15.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.87 vs Colorado Rockies 4.52

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