Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Minnesota Twins at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will be the home team, while the Twins will be the away team. This American League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Blue Jays are having a below-average season with a record of 17-20. Meanwhile, the Twins are having a great season, boasting a record of 22-15. The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB this season, while the Twins offense ranks as the 11th best.

The Blue Jays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, who has started 7 games this year. Kikuchi has a win/loss record of 2-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.72. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kikuchi is the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB, which indicates that he is above average.

On the other hand, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ryan. Ryan has also started 7 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.54. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Ryan the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is performing at a great level.

In terms of team statistics, the Blue Jays rank 5th in MLB in team batting average and 15th in team home runs. The Twins, on the other hand, rank 22nd in team batting average and 7th in team home runs.

The Blue Jays bullpen is considered the 17th best in MLB, while the Twins bullpen ranks as the 6th best. This could potentially give the Twins an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Twins have a low implied team total of 3.66 runs. The game total for today's game is set at 7.5 runs, which is relatively low.

Overall, this game promises to be a close matchup, with the Blue Jays slight favorites according to the moneyline odds. Both teams have strong starting pitchers on the mound, but the Twins' offense may provide a challenge for Kikuchi. The outcome of this game will likely come down to the performance of the bullpens and the ability of each team's hitters to produce runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.4-mph increase from last season's 91.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

As it relates to his batting average, Ryan Jeffers has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .284 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Yusei Kikuchi will concede an average of 1.8 singles in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Bo Bichette is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 83 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+16.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.06 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.87

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