Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. As the home team, the Orioles will look to continue their impressive season, boasting a record of 24-12. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have had a below-average season with a record of 18-20.

The Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin, who has been solid this season with a 3-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.86. However, his 3.94 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances. Irvin is a low-strikeout pitcher, and he will face a Diamondbacks offense that ranks third in the league in team stolen bases, which could pose a challenge for him.

The Diamondbacks are set to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has had an average season with a 4.61 ERA. However, his 3.26 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Pfaadt will face an Orioles offense that ranks sixth in MLB, showcasing their talent and ability to score runs.

In terms of team rankings, the Orioles have an impressive offense, ranking sixth in MLB overall. They are particularly strong in team batting average, where they rank fourteenth. However, their ranking in team home runs and stolen bases sits at seventeenth. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have an average offense, ranking twelfth overall. They excel in team batting average, ranking eleventh, but fall behind in team home runs, ranking nineteenth. However, they have the third-most stolen bases in the league.

In terms of betting odds, the Orioles are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% chance of winning. The Diamondbacks are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and a 44% chance of winning. Based on the current odds, the Orioles have a higher implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Diamondbacks' 3.96 runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cole Irvin struggles to strike batters out (16th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

In today's game, Eugenio Suarez is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.3% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cole Irvin's curveball rate has spiked by 16.5% from last season to this one (15.2% to 31.7%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jorge Mateo's footspeed has decreased this season. His 30.08 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.55 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 113 games (+19.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 103 games (+11.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games (+12.70 Units / 55% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.27 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.5

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