Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Athletics
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Oakland Athletics in an American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a 20-18 record, are having an above-average season, while the Athletics, with an 18-21 record, are having a below-average season.

The Mariners will be the home team for this game, giving them the advantage of playing in familiar surroundings. They will be relying on their projected starting pitcher, Bryan Woo, a right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the #46 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Woo is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters per game. However, he is projected to allow 3.7 hits and 1.4 walks, which are areas of concern.

On the other side, the Athletics will send Paul Blackburn to the mound. Blackburn, also a right-handed pitcher, has started seven games this season and holds a 3-1 win/loss record with an impressive 3.00 ERA. However, his 3.62 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward. Blackburn is a low-strikeout pitcher, but he will be facing a Mariners offense that ranks second in the league in strikeouts, which could work in his favor.

In terms of team rankings, the Mariners offense ranks 23rd in MLB, while the Athletics offense ranks 18th. The Mariners have an average team batting average, but rank 13th in home runs and 18th in stolen bases. The Athletics, on the other hand, have a very low team batting average, but rank fifth in stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Mariners rank 21st, while the Athletics rank 25th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Both teams have areas to improve in their relief pitching.

In terms of betting odds, the Mariners are the favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Athletics are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%. Based on the current odds, the Mariners have an average implied team total of 4.01 runs, while the Athletics have a very low implied team total of 3.49 runs.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the Mariners' above-average season and the Athletics' below-average season. With the Mariners having the advantage of playing at home and a slight edge in the betting odds, they have a good chance to come out on top. However, the Athletics' pitcher, Paul Blackburn, may find success against the Mariners' high-strikeout offense. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams look to improve their standings in the American League West.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Paul Blackburn has relied on his non-fastballs 7% more often this year (68.4%) than he did last year (61.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brent Rooker's 15.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 94th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Mitch Haniger's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.65 ft/sec last year to 25.65 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.13 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 34% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.49 vs Seattle Mariners 4.47

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