Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park on May 10, 2024. The Padres, with a season record of 20-20, are having an average season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 26-13 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Padres will take the field as the home team, looking to capitalize on their offensive strength. Currently ranked as the 8th best offense in MLB, the Padres have showcased their power with a solid ranking of 10th in team home runs. Additionally, their efficient base running has earned them the 7th spot in team stolen bases.

On the other side, the Dodgers will step onto the field as the away team with the best offense in MLB. Their impressive rankings include 2nd in team home runs and an average ranking of 12th in team batting average. However, their weakness lies in stolen bases, where they are currently ranked 20th.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Michael King for the Padres and Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers. King, ranked as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, will face a tough challenge against the elite pitcher, Glasnow, who sits at the 7th spot. King has started 7 games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 4.29, indicating an average performance. However, his peripheral indicator, FIP, suggests that he may struggle going forward.

Glasnow, with 8 starts this season, has showcased his dominance with a 6-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.70. His control on the mound, with a low-walk rate of 6.7%, may prove to be advantageous against the Padres' patient offense.

In terms of team rankings, the Padres have the 8th best bullpen in MLB according to our power rankings, while the Dodgers sit at the 13th spot. This suggests that the Padres have an advantage in the bullpen department.

At the sportsbook, the Padres enter the game as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, resulting in an implied win probability of 40%. The Dodgers, as the betting favorites, hold a moneyline of -165, implying a win probability of 60%.

Considering the projected win probability, the Padres have a low implied team total of 3.54 runs, while the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.46 runs. This suggests that the betting odds favor the Dodgers to come out on top in this game.

Overall, this National League West matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with different strengths. The Padres will rely on their offensive firepower, while the Dodgers showcase their strong pitching and powerful bats. With the odds in favor of the Dodgers, it will be interesting to see how the Padres' average season plays out against the dominant force of the Dodgers.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Tyler Glasnow's fastball spin rate of 2546 rpm is in the 98th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Freddie Freeman's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.69 ft/sec last year to 26.08 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.2% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, putting up a .398 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .088 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Luis Campusano, the Padres's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 86 games (+16.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.10 Units / 46% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.91 vs San Diego Padres 4.01

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