Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

In a matchup scheduled for May 10, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will be hosting the Houston Astros at Comerica Park. This American League showdown pits the Tigers, with a season record of 19-18, against the struggling Astros, who currently sit at 13-24.

On the mound for the Tigers will be right-handed pitcher Casey Mize, who is having an average season. Mize has started six games this year, boasting a 1-1 win/loss record and a 3.98 ERA. Despite his ERA, Mize's peripheral indicator, FIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. He is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

Opposing Mize will be the Astros' left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who is having a great season. Valdez has started four games, with a 1-1 win/loss record and a 3.97 ERA. Similar to Mize, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve. Valdez is projected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs.

The Tigers currently have a record of 19-18, putting them in an average position this season. Their offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB, with a team batting average and home run ranking of 27th. In their last game against the Guardians, the Tigers lost 5-4. Despite being labeled as underdogs, the Tigers' best hitter this season, Riley Greene, has been providing consistent offensive production.

On the other side, the Astros are having a tough season with a record of 13-24. However, their offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB, with a team batting average and home run ranking of 14th and 9th, respectively. In their last game against the Yankees, the Astros secured a 4-3 victory. Kyle Tucker has been the standout hitter for the Astros this season, contributing with his impressive batting average and OPS.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Astros as the favorites in this game with a win probability of 57%. However, the Tigers are not to be underestimated, especially with Casey Mize taking the mound. The Tigers' bullpen is considered average, while the Astros' bullpen ranks lower at 20th.

With a game total of 8.0 runs, the Tigers are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +115, implying a win probability of 44%. The Astros, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -140, suggesting a win probability of 56%.

As the Tigers face the Astros, their key to success lies in capitalizing on Valdez's tendency for groundballs, as the Tigers have struggled with power hitting this season. On the other hand, the Astros will look to take advantage of Mize's lower strikeout rate against their low-strikeout offense.

This game holds significance for both teams as they aim to improve their season records. With the Tigers' average offense and the Astros' strong batting lineup, expect a competitive matchup on the diamond.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez (59% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yordan Alvarez's speed has fallen off this season. His 25.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.64 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in baseball: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With a 0.72 deviation between Casey Mize's 3.98 ERA and his 3.26 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year and ought to see positive regression going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Typically, bats like Javier Baez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andy Ibanez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 62 away games (+18.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.85 vs Detroit Tigers 3.82

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