Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In an exciting National League East matchup, the New York Mets will take on the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on May 10, 2024. The Mets, with a season record of 18-18, are having an average season, while the Braves boast an impressive 22-12 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Mets will be the home team for this game, hoping to capitalize on the familiar surroundings of Citi Field. On the other hand, the Braves will be the away team, looking to extend their successful campaign.

The Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has had a challenging season so far. Quintana has started seven games with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.20, which is considered bad. However, his 4.52 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Braves, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has been performing at an average level this season. Morton has started six games with a win/loss record of 2-0 and an ERA of 3.50, which is considered great.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Braves hold the upper hand. They rank as the 5th best offense in MLB, with a strong batting average and a high number of home runs. The Mets, on the other hand, rank 17th in overall offense, with an average performance.

Considering the pitching matchup, Quintana's low-strikeout style may face challenges against the Braves' offense, which ranks 6th in the league for the least strikeouts. However, Quintana's high-groundball rate may work in his favor against the Braves' power-hitting lineup, as they lead the league in home runs.

According to the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 58%, while the Mets are the underdogs with a 42% win probability. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Adam Duvall has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana has a pitch-to-contact profile (15th percentile K%) — great news for Duvall.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tallying 91.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Jose Quintana falls in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.D. Martinez's quickness has decreased this year. His 26.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.37 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in the league: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 106 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 93% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.41 vs New York Mets 3.7

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