New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field in an American League East matchup. The Rays, with a season record of 19-19, are having an average season so far, while the Yankees boast a strong 25-14 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taj Bradley, who is considered the #79 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Yankees are expected to start Clarke Schmidt, who is ranked #66 among MLB starting pitchers.

Schmidt has been impressive this season, with a solid record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.50. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. Taj Bradley, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, which is not ideal, and is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs on average.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Rays rank #20 in MLB overall, but they excel in team batting average, ranking #9. They also rank #4 in team home runs and #2 in stolen bases. The Yankees, on the other hand, have the #2 best offense in MLB, despite ranking low in team batting average at #29. They are strong in team home runs, ranking #8, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking #20.

Looking at recent performances, the Rays' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Isaac Paredes, while Aaron Judge has been the standout for the Yankees. Both players have been consistent contributors to their respective teams.

In terms of betting odds, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -135, implying a win probability of 55%. The Rays, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 45%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Based on the projections and rankings, the Yankees appear to have the edge in this matchup. However, the Rays have the advantage of playing at home, which could level the playing field. It is expected to be a closely contested game between these division rivals.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Clarke Schmidt will surrender an average of 2.23 earned runs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Anthony Rizzo has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling an 11.09 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.18 — a 1.91 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Randy Arozarena's true offensive skill to be a .338, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .091 difference between that mark and his actual .247 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (44.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+11.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.73 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.06

Get daily MLB picks here.