Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the Kansas City Royals on May 10, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a disappointing 14-23 record this season, are hosting the game as the home team. On the other hand, the Royals are having a great season, boasting a 22-16 record.

The Angels are projected to start right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Canning is considered one of the lower-ranked starting pitchers in MLB. In seven starts, he has a 1-4 win/loss record with a high ERA of 6.69. However, his 5.07 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may improve going forward.

The Royals will counter with right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Marsh has started five games this year, with a perfect 3-0 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.70. However, his 4.40 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Angels' offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB this season, showcasing average underlying talent. They excel in team home runs, ranking third in the league, but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 27th. The Royals' offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 16th best in MLB, also displaying average talent. They stand out in team stolen bases, ranking fourth, but struggle with home runs, ranking 26th.

In terms of the pitching matchup, Canning's high-flyball tendencies may pose a challenge for the Royals' offense, which has relatively little power. This could limit their ability to turn flyballs into home runs. On the other side, Marsh's low-strikeout pitching style may work in his favor against the high-strikeout Angels offense.

Considering the current odds, the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Royals have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs. The betting markets expect a close game, with the Royals having a slight advantage in terms of win probability.

Overall, the Angels will look to improve their season record and overcome their struggles, while the Royals aim to continue their strong performance. With the pitching matchup and offensive rankings in mind, this game has the potential to be an intriguing battle between two teams with different trajectories this season.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Alec Marsh to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 68 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Hunter Renfroe's speed has dropped off this season. His 26.75 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.26 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Kansas City's 89.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in Major League Baseball: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning's slider utilization has fallen by 5% from last year to this one (29.7% to 24.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Logan O'Hoppe has been unlucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 30.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal lower than his 42.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.14 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 games (+7.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.96 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.7

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