Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

In a National League matchup scheduled for May 10, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will take on the Cincinnati Reds at Oracle Park. The Giants, with a record of 17-22, are having a tough season, while the Reds, with a record of 16-21, are also struggling.

The Giants will send right-handed pitcher Logan Webb to the mound, who is projected to start against the Reds' left-handed pitcher, Andrew Abbott. Webb, ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been performing at an elite level this season. In 8 starts, he has a win-loss record of 3-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.50. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may regress in future performances. On the other hand, Abbott, an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings, has started 7 games this year with a win-loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 3.32.

The Giants offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season, while the Reds offense ranks 26th. The Giants have struggled with their batting average and stolen bases, ranking 21st and 29th respectively. In contrast, the Reds have shown some power with their batting average and home run rankings at 14th. However, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a win probability of 59%. The Reds, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

It's worth noting that the Giants' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Michael Conforto, recording 9 hits, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .409 and an OPS of 1.318. The Reds' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Jeimer Candelario, with 6 hits, 1 home run, a batting average of .333, and an OPS of .889.

Considering the Giants' strong bullpen, Logan Webb's elite performance, and the Reds' struggles on offense, the Giants have a good chance of coming out on top in this game. However, with baseball's unpredictable nature, anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The San Francisco Giants have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Abbott in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball batters like Will Benson usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mike Ford pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all SPs, Logan Webb's fastball spin rate of 1997.2 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jakson Reetz, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 86 games (+24.27 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+15.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 69% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.57 vs San Francisco Giants 4.41

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