Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On May 10, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Washington Nationals at Fenway Park in an Interleague matchup. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a record of 19-18 and the Nationals sitting at 18-18. The Red Sox are the home team for this game.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been a standout player this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houck is ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His 1.99 ERA is excellent, although his 2.67 xFIP suggests that he may regress in future performances. Houck has started 7 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-3.

On the other side, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin. Unfortunately, Corbin has struggled this season, ranking as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has a high ERA of 6.45, but his 4.39 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future. Corbin has started 7 games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-3.

The Red Sox offense has been solid this season, ranking as the 10th best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. However, their home run and stolen base rankings are average. The Nationals offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 19th best in MLB, with a strong performance in team batting average (6th in the league). However, they struggle in home runs, ranking second to last.

In terms of pitching, the Red Sox bullpen ranks 27th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Nationals bullpen is ranked last. This could be a disadvantage for both teams.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are considered a big betting favorite with an implied win probability of 64%. The Nationals, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 36%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the average Red Sox and Nationals teams. The performance of pitchers Tanner Houck and Patrick Corbin will be crucial to the outcome. The Red Sox offense holds an advantage, especially in team batting average. However, the Nationals' lack of power might not be a significant factor against Houck, who is known for inducing groundballs. Keep an eye on the bullpens, as they could play a role in determining the final result. With the odds favoring the Red Sox, they are expected to have a higher team total of 4.93 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.57 runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Out of all SPs, Patrick Corbin's fastball velocity of 90.8 mph is in the 14th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Keibert Ruiz's quickness has decreased this year. His 25.09 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.37 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Fenway Park — the #10 HR venue in the league — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Connor Wong has been lucky this year, putting up a .408 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .110 deviation.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Romy Gonzalez, Jarren Duran).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 92 games (+19.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.63 vs Boston Red Sox 5.33

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