Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, a National League Central matchup is set to take place at Wrigley Field between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs, with a record of 20-14, are having a great season, while the Brewers, with a record of 20-12, are also performing well.

The game will feature a pitching duel between Javier Assad of the Cubs and Freddy Peralta of the Brewers. Assad, a right-handed pitcher, has started six games this year and holds an impressive 2-0 record with a 1.97 ERA. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in performance going forward. On the other hand, Peralta, also a right-handed pitcher, has started six games as well and boasts a 3-0 record with a 3.21 ERA. His 2.57 SIERA indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Peralta is considered the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Assad ranks 165th.

The Cubs offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, with an average team ranking. They excel in team batting average, ranking 9th, and stolen bases, ranking 6th. Meanwhile, the Brewers have the 3rd best offense in MLB, with their team ranking considered great. However, their team batting average ranks low at 27th, while their home run ranking is 22nd. Both teams have average to below-average bullpens, with the Cubs ranked 21st and the Brewers ranked 18th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The betting markets anticipate a close game, with the Cubs currently holding a moneyline of +110, implying a win probability of 46%. The Brewers, on the other hand, have a moneyline of -130, suggesting a win probability of 54%. The Game Total is set at 6.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs have a projected team total of 3.10 runs, while the Brewers have a projected team total of 3.40 runs. These projections hint at a tight contest between the two teams.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brice Turang is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Milwaukee's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Patrick Wisdom, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago Cubs have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 92 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 21 games (+23.00 Units / 110% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.82 vs Chicago Cubs 2.95

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