Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Baltimore Orioles at Great American Ball Park on May 5, 2024. The Reds, with a record of 16-17, are having a below-average season, while the Orioles boast an impressive 22-11 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Reds will have home-field advantage as they face the Orioles. On the mound, the Reds are projected to start the talented left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. Lodolo has started four games, maintaining an undefeated 3-0 record with an impressive 1.88 ERA. However, his 2.84 xFIP suggests that he may regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer. Although Kremer has a 2-2 record this season with a 4.19 ERA, his peripheral indicators such as a 5.70 xERA and 5.23 FIP suggest that he may struggle going forward.

The Reds' offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, indicating a below-average performance. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league. Meanwhile, the Orioles' offense is ranked fifth-best in MLB, showcasing their impressive talent.

According to the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, making it a close game. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams with contrasting seasons. The Reds will look to rely on their strong pitching performance from Nick Lodolo, while the Orioles will aim to capitalize on their impressive offensive capabilities. With both teams having an equal chance of winning, fans can expect a thrilling contest at Great American Ball Park.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dean Kremer has relied on his non-fastballs 7.9% more often this year (56.2%) than he did last season (48.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Colton Cowser has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 21.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 3.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his last GS, Nick Lodolo turned in a great performance and accumulated 11 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Luke Maile, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 115 games (+16.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 132 games (+23.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.62 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.89

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.