Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup, the Houston Astros are set to take on the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on May 5, 2024. The Astros, who have had a rough season with a 12-21 record, will be looking to turn things around against the Mariners, who have been performing above average with an 18-15 record.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown. Despite his team's struggles, Brown has been ranked as the #96 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings. His record stands at 0-4 with an ERA of 9.78, but his 4.21 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Brown is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 6.2 batters, but also giving up 4.7 hits and 2.0 walks on average.

Opposing Brown will be right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Miller has been having a solid season with a 3-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.04. However, his 3.44 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Miller is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters, but also surrendering 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

The Astros boast the 4th best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and ability to score runs. They rank 14th in team batting average, 9th in home runs, and 12th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking 25th overall. They stand at 24th in team batting average, 13th in home runs, and 18th in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Astros have the 11th best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mariners sit at 20th. However, it's important to note that these rankings are based on underlying talent and not year-to-date performance.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are favored with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Mariners, with a moneyline of +100, have a 48% win probability. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has averaged 17.7 outs per outing this year, placing in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jorge Polanco tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's slider percentage has dropped by 17.1% from last season to this one (25.1% to 8%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the majors: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+12.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 34 away games (+10.87 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.38 vs Houston Astros 5

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.