Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins
  • Joe Boyle - Athletics

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will take on the Miami Marlins at Oakland Coliseum. The Athletics will be hosting the game as the home team in this Interleague matchup. With a record of 17-17, the Athletics are having an average season, while the Marlins are struggling with a 9-26 record, making it a terrible season for them.

The Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Boyle, who has had a challenging season so far. Boyle has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 6.08, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.86 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Marlins will start right-handed pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who has shown promise with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 8.36. His 4.63 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and could improve in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Athletics rank as the 28th best team in MLB, indicating a poor performance this season. They are particularly struggling with their team batting average, ranking last in the league. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league. The Marlins, on the other hand, rank as the 29th best team in MLB, with their team batting average being a bright spot at 3rd in the league.

Considering the projections, Boyle is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, striking out 5.2 batters, and giving up 4.3 hits and 2.4 walks on average. Sanchez, meanwhile, is projected to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs, striking out 4.0 batters, and surrendering 4.5 hits and 1.1 walks on average. These projections suggest that Boyle may struggle with control, but the Marlins' impatient offense may not be able to take advantage.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Athletics have an implied win probability of 54%, while the Marlins have an implied win probability of 46%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The current moneyline favors the Athletics at -130, suggesting that betting markets expect a close game.

Overall, this game presents an opportunity for the Athletics to capitalize on their average season and face a struggling Marlins team. However, baseball is unpredictable, and the outcome will ultimately be determined on the field.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sixto Sanchez in the 20th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

This season, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 24.94 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Miami Marlins offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joe Boyle's 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, bats like J.D. Davis who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Sixto Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 121 games (+10.13 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.93 vs Oakland Athletics 3.77

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