Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On May 15, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park. This Interleague matchup features the Tigers as the home team, with the Marlins playing as the away team.

The Tigers currently hold a season record of 21-21, indicating an average performance so far. On the other hand, the Marlins have struggled this season, with a record of 12-32, signifying a tough campaign for them.

Casey Mize is projected to start for the Tigers. Mize, a right-handed pitcher, has had a decent season with an ERA of 3.58. However, his peripheral indicator, SIERA, suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. In contrast, Trevor Rogers is expected to start for the Marlins. Rogers, a left-handed pitcher, has struggled this season with an ERA of 6.57. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

The Tigers offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 25th best in MLB. Their team batting average and home run numbers are also among the lowest in the league. The Marlins offense, on the other hand, has performed slightly better, ranking 29th in MLB overall, but boasting a strong team batting average.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Casey Mize is considered an average starting pitcher, ranking 114th out of approximately 350 pitchers. In contrast, Trevor Rogers is ranked as one of the worst pitchers in MLB. However, these rankings should be considered estimates of underlying talent regardless of actual year-to-date performance.

Looking at the projected statistics for today's game, Mize is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow an average of 2.5 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.6 batters but give up 5.3 hits and 1.2 walks. Rogers, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings and allow an average of 2.9 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 4.1 batters but surrender 5.6 hits and 1.7 walks.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, implying a win probability of 60%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +140, indicating a win probability of 40%.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Tigers as big favorites with a win probability of 61%, while the Marlins are seen as significant underdogs with a projected win probability of 39%.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Trevor Rogers has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Josh Bell's footspeed has declined this season. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.78 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Bethancourt, Jake Burger, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Despite posting a .186 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Javier Baez has had bad variance on his side given the .102 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .288.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Detroit Tigers batters as a group grade out 24th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+5.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nick Gordon has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.34 vs Detroit Tigers 4.81

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