Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
  • Robert Gasser - Brewers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 15, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League Central matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a season record of 25-17, are having a great season, while the Pirates, with a record of 19-24, are struggling.

The Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser, who has been performing well this season. In his one start this year, Gasser has a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.00. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Pirates will start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. Perez has started eight games this season with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.60. His xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate in his performances and could see a decline going forward.

In terms of offense, the Brewers rank as the third-best team in MLB, showcasing their talent and consistency at the plate. However, their team batting average ranks low at 27th in the league. Meanwhile, the Pirates offense ranks 26th in MLB, struggling to find their groove.

Taking a look at the projected pitching performances, Gasser is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, while Perez is projected for around 5.1 innings. Gasser is estimated to allow 2.4 earned runs on average, while Perez is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs.

The Brewers are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Pirates are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Overall, the Brewers have been a strong team this season, both on the mound and at the plate. While the Pirates have struggled, they have a solid bullpen, which could come into play in this game. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers' potent offense matches up against Perez, who is known for his low-walk approach.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Oneil Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Robert Gasser will rack up an average of 5.9 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Joey Ortiz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• Edward Olivares has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 35% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.55

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